Overall Growth: The Indian Auto Retail sector achieved a 2.61% YoY growth in May 2024.
Segment Growth: Two-Wheelers (2W) up by 2.5% YoY, Three-Wheelers (3W) increased by 20% YoY, Passenger Vehicles (PV) declined by -1% YoY, Tractors (Trac) de-grew by -1% YoY and Commercial Vehicles (CV) experienced a growth of 4% YoY.
Market Factors:
Positive Sentiments: Positive rural demand due to expected good monsoon and improved finance availability kept the counters ticking.
Supply and Demand: Good movement in market loads, cement, iron ore, and coal sectors contributed positively despite supply constraints and lack of OEM marketing activities.
Weather Impact: Extreme heat and elections significantly impacted footfall, with showrooms seeing an 18% drop in walk-ins.
Challenges Identified:
Election Impact: Elections and related uncertainties affected customer sentiment, delaying purchasing decisions.
Financial Constraints: Market liquidity issues and high inventory levels strained dealership profitability.
Weather Extremes: Extreme heat and above normal rains forecast could further impact sales and walk-ins.
Near-Term Outlook: The industry remains cautiously optimistic. Post-election stability and a continuity in the government are expected to boost infrastructure projects and economic activities. Above-normal rains forecasted by the IMD should enhance rural demand and support economic activities. However, addressing extreme weather challenges, intense competition, and liquidity issues will be crucial for sustained market improvement.
The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) today released Vehicle Retail Data for May’24.
May’24 Retails
FADA President Mr. Manish Raj Singhania commented on May 2024’s auto retail performance, stating, “In May 2024, the Indian Auto Retail sector achieved a modest 2.61% YoY growth. The two-wheeler (2W), three-wheeler (3W) and commercial vehicle (CV) segments grew by 2.5%, 20% and 4% while passenger vehicle (PV) and tractor (Trac) were in red by 1% each YoY.
The two-wheeler segment grew by 2.5% YoY but declined by 6.6% MoM. Dealers reported supply constraints, lack of OEM marketing activities and impacts from extremely hot weather and elections. Positive rural demand due to expected good monsoon and improved finance availability were also noted which kept the counters ticking.
The PV segment showed -1% YoY and a -9.5% MoM decline. Dealers cited the impact of elections, extreme heat and market liquidity issues as major factors. Despite better supply, some pending bookings and discount schemes, the lack of new models, intense competition and poor marketing efforts by OEMs affected sales. Additionally, increased customer postponements and low enquiries further contributed to the challenging market conditions. Due to the extreme heat, the number of walk-ins to showrooms dropped by around 18%.
The CV segment showed a 4% YoY growth but an -8% MoM decline. Dealers reported that elections and extreme climatic conditions heavily impacted sales. Despite growth due to a low base from last year and increased bus orders, the industry faced challenges from wholesale pressures, government policy effects, and negative market sentiment. Additionally, good movement in market loads, cement, iron ore, and coal sectors contributed positively.
Overall, while the auto retail sector saw mixed results, the industry is navigating through significant challenges with cautious optimism for the coming months.”
Near-Term Outlook
The near-term outlook for the Automobile Retail is ‘cautiously optimistic’, influenced by a mix of positive and challenging factors across various segments. Post-election results are expected to bring stability and improve market sentiment, while the formation of a continued government could boost infrastructure projects and economic activities. Dealers are hopeful about better supplies and positive movement in key sectors like cement, coal and iron ore. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-normal rains at 106% of the long-period average (LPA) this year, which is expected to enhance rural demand and support economic activities. However, extreme weather, such as heatwaves and heavy rains, along with the reopening of schools in July, might delay purchase decisions.
Despite these positive indicators, challenges persist, including intense competition, lack of new model launches and poor marketing efforts by OEMs. Liquidity issues and high inventory levels continue to strain profitability for Dealerships. Although discount schemes and good product availability are in place, low customer enquiries and postponements due to seasonal factors remain concerns.
Uneven monsoon rains have previously impacted farm sector growth and while this year’s above-normal forecast is promising, it raises the risk of possible floods in some regions, potentially disrupting the market. Overall, while there is potential for growth with the new government formation and favourable economic conditions, addressing these challenges will be crucial for sustained improvement in the automotive market.
Key Findings from our Online Members Survey
Liquidity
Neutral 44.51%
Bad 29.12%
Good 26.37%
Sentiment
Neutral 45.60%
Bad 29.12%
Good 25.27%
Expectation from June’24
Growth 42.86%
Flat 42.31%