The opposition party Congress may emerge as the single largest party in the Karnataka assembly elections, but may fall eight seats short of a clear majority, says the India TV-CNX opinion poll which was telecasted on the news channel on 7th May, 2023.
The opinion poll projections show, Congress may win 105 seats in the 224-seat assembly, while the ruling BJP may win 85 seats, followed by Janata Dal(S) which may win 32 seats. ‘Others’ may win two seats.
In the 2018 elections, BJP had won 104, Congress had won 80, JD(S) had won 37, and ‘Others’ had won three seats.
Vote share projections show, Congress may get 40.32 per cent, BJP may get 35.5 per cent, JD(S) 17.81 pc, and ‘Others’ may get 6.37 pc. In the 2018 elections, Congress had got 38.04 pc, BJP had got 36.22 pc, JD(S) 18.36 pc and ‘Others’ had got 7.38 pc votes.
CASTE, COMMUNITY WISE VOTE SHARE
Caste and community wise projections show, Congress may get 75.3 pc of Kuruba votes, 15.11 pc Lingayat votes, 17.57 pc Vokkaliga votes, 40.56 SC votes, 34.58 pc OBC votes, 42.35 pc ST votes, and a whopping 78 per cent Muslim votes. On the other hand, BJP may get 15.14 pc Kuruba votes, a whopping 75.8 pc Lingayat votes, 17.39 pc Vokkaliga votes, 39.6 pc SC votes, 51.7 pc OBC votes, 32.18 pc ST votes and only 2.07 pc votes. The projection show JD(S) may get 56 per cent Vokkaliga votes.
REGION-WISE PROJECTIONS
The India TV-CNX poll projections region-wise show, BJP and Congress may share 15 seats each in Greater Bangalore (32 seats total), while JD(S) may get two seats.
In Central Karnataka having a total of 21 seats, BJP may win 13 and Congress may win eight seats.
In Hyderabad Karnataka region, having a total of 40 seats, Congress may sweep by winning 32 seats, BJP may win six and JD(S) may win two seats.
In Old Mysore having 62 seats, Congress may win 26 seats, JD(S) may win 28 seats, and BJP may win only seven seats. ‘Others’ may win the remaining one seat.
In Coastal Karnataka having 19 seats, BJP may win 15 and the Congress may win 4 seats.
In Bombay Karnataka region having 50 seats, BJP may win 29, Congress may win 20 and ‘Others’ may win one seat.
PREFERENCE FOR CHIEF MINISTER
The survey findings showed, Congress leader and former CM Siddaramaiah leading the list with 32.2 per cent respondents wishing to see him as the next CM, followed by 26.83 pc favouring the current incumbent Basavaraj Bommai. 16.37 per cent opted for JD(S) leader and former CM H D Kumaraswamy, while 10.97 pc favoured BJP leader and former CM B S Yeddyurappa. Only seven per cent preferred Congress leader D K Shivkumar for the CM post.
The opinion poll survey was carried out by CNX among 11,200 respondents (5,620 males and 5,580 females) in 112 out of a total of 224 seats. The respondents were selected randomly keeping in view demographic, professional and migration dimensions.