A comprehensive mega opinion survey conducted by Manorama News in partnership with CVoter projects a potential return to power for the United Democratic Front (UDF) in the upcoming Kerala Legislative Assembly Elections 2026.
Conducted across all 140 constituencies with a sample size of nearly 90,000 respondents, the survey projects the UDF to win 69 to 81 seats, while the Left Democratic Front (LDF) is expected to secure 57 to 69 seats. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which failed to win a seat in 2021, is projected to open its account this time, with a possible tally of 1 to 5 seats.
In the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections, the Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by Pinarayi Vijayan, returned to power with a decisive victory, winning 99 seats. As the alliance eyes a third consecutive term, the survey predicts a significant decline compared to the previous election. The LDF may lose 30 to 42 of its sitting seats, while the United Democratic Front (UDF) is likely to gain 28 to 40 additional seats. For the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), even a single seat would mark a breakthrough, with the possibility of winning more than one seat.
Region-wise projections indicate strong gains for the UDF in Malabar, where it is expected to win 25 to 34 out of 48 seats, while the LDF may secure 14 to 23 seats. In Central Kerala, the UDF is projected to win 29 to 33 out of 53 seats, with the LDF likely to get 20 to 24 seats, marking a significant shift from 2021. In South Kerala, the LDF is expected to maintain an edge with 21 to 25 seats, while the UDF may improve to 12 to 16 seats. The NDA could win 1 to 3 seats in the region.
The survey sample was collected between March 14 and March 26, 2026. In addition, tracker and snap poll surveys were conducted from December 1, 2025, to March 20, 2026. A total of 89,693 respondents participated in the study. The survey ensured representation across all 140 Assembly constituencies, covering regions, demographics, and social segments.
The CVoter survey was conducted in accordance with the guidelines of the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR). It also strictly adhered to the norms set by the Press Council of India in both the conduct of the survey and the publication of its results.
Manorama News has built a strong reputation for accuracy, with its projections closely aligning with the outcomes of the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections. This consistent track record reinforces the credibility of its opinion polls as a reliable barometer of public sentiment, enabling stakeholders and voters to make informed decisions.
