India set to hit peak of 6.5 lakh active cases on August 21
The report indicates an alarming rise in COVID-19 cases in Southern states including Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala
Orissa, Bihar and West Bengal are showing signs as the next epicentre for COVID-19 in the country
The earlier hardest hit states of Maharashtra and Delhi has made significant progress in reducing transmission rate
Over the past 4 months, India has been in the grips of a pandemic that has uprooted the livelihoods of millions, impacting the economy adversely. Amid all the uncertainty, there is one question that stands above all, when will the outbreak end, and when can India expect to return to some semblance of normalcy? Tracking the coronavirus pandemic in India for the past several weeks, Times Fact-India Outbreak Report, has released its latest projections of the COVID-19 pandemic highlighting the peak and end dates at both National and State levels.
India, the third worst-hit country in the world after the US and Brazil, is projected to hit its peak of 6.45 Lakh active cases on August 21, indicates the latest mathematical modelling by the Times Fact-India Outbreak Report. This projection is based on the ‘most likely’ scenario and as per SEIR model, the peak is projected to be at 6.98 lakh active cases on August 23. The report shows that following India’s peak, daily active case counts are projected to decline by mid-October, thereby establishing India’s recovery from COVID-19.
Following various States implementing relaxations to revive the nation’s economy, the study shows that the easing of mobility restrictions has led to abandoning of safety protocols and significantly contributing to India’s peak being pushed by approximately 40 days. The analysis had earlier predicted a peak by July 15, which now has been pushed to August 21. A continued failure to practise social distancing could very well skew India’s coronavirus curve further to the right and upwards, yielding a higher peak, and more distant end date. This report aims to arm citizens on the evolving pandemic scenario, critical in the next 30-40days and therefore practice safety measures to flatten the curve.
Times Fact-India Outbreak Report: Key takeaways
1. National and State COVID -19 projection of active cases
A. India is projected to hit its peak of 6,45,700 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on August 21, and 6,97,714 active cases as per the SEIR model on August 23.
B. Alarming rise in COVID-19 cases in Southern states,
a) Karnataka is projected to hit a peak of 53,546 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on August 04 and its end is projected as September 25. As per the SEIR model, the state will reach a peak of 69,387 active cases on August 04 and is expected to end by September 17. Bangalore is projected to hit a peak of 33,772 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on August 10 and its end is projected as by September 25. As per the SEIR model the city will reach a peak of 23,429 active cases on August 10 and its end is projected as September 20
b) Tamil Nadu is projected to hit a peak of 53,075 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on July 21 and its end is projected by September 25. As per the SEIR model, the state will reach a peak of 68,379 active cases on August 01 and its end is projected as September 18.
c) Kerala is projected to hit its peak of 4372 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on August 10 and its end is projected as September 18. As per the SEIR model, the state will reach a peak of 4,835 active cases on August 20 and its end is projected as September 18.
d) Telangana is projected to hit its peak of 24,232 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on July 29 and its end is projected as August 25. As per the SEIR model, Telangana will touch a peak of 29,097 active cases on July 29 and its end is projected as September 19.
e) Andhra Pradesh is projected to hit its peak of 34,632 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on August 16 and its end is projected touch as September 25. The state will see a peak of 43,313 active cases as per the SEIR model on August 16.
C. Maharashtra, the worst-hit state, is projected to hit its peak of 1,43,181 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on August 1 and its end is projected as September 30. The state will see 1,31,832 active cases as per the SEIR model on July 29 and its end is projected as September 23. The report shows that Thane now is and will be the worst hit district in Maharashtra with more number of active cases and a higher peak than Mumbai. Thane is projected to hit the peak with 44,196 actives cases on July 26 according to the ‘most likely’ model and its end is projected as September 24. Pune is projected to hit its peak of 27,688 active cases on July 29, according to the ‘most likely’ model and its end is projected as September 18. As per SEIR model, Pune will reach a peak of 15,564 peak active cases on July 16 and its end is projected as August 17.
D. Uttar Pradesh is projected to hit its peak of 34,260 on August 18 according to the ‘most likely’ model and its end is projected as September 29. The state will see a peak of 31,567 active cases as per the SEIR model on August 18 and its end is projected as September 19.
E. Rajasthan is projected to hit its peak of 7998 cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on August 02 and its end is projected as September 29. The state will see a peak of 7,110 active cases as per the SEIR model on August 02 and its end is projected as September 09.
F. West Bengal is projected to hit its peak of 19,777 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on August 20 and its end is projected as October 03. The state will see a peak of 19,250 active cases as per the SEIR model on August 28 and its end is projected as September 19.
G. Delhi is projected to hit its peak of 30,851 active cases as per the SEIR model on August 4 and its end is projected as September 17.
H. Gujarat is projected to hit its peak of 10,521 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on July 21 and its end is projected as September 20. The state will see a peak of 12,770 active cases as per the SEIR model on July 28 and its end is projected as September 03. Surat is projected to hit its peak of 5775 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on August 11 and its end is projected as September 20.
2. R0 (Reproduction rate) for India is slowly going down to 1.69 from 1.77 in last 22 days.
3. India Doubling Days has increased to 20 days (as compared to 16 days a month back) but still low.
4. All the major states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Haryana are showing a downward trend with R0 less than 1.5.
5. Mumbai is showing a downward trend with R0 for the first time falling to 1.7.
6. The Doubling day has reduced for some of the states including Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Delhi which is a cause of concern.
7. Epicentre has moved from Mumbai to Delhi and now to Bangalore, Chennai, Telangana.
8. Growth rate in new epicentres are higher than the previous ones – potential to put strain on the health infrastructure. Thane reached 30,000 active cases (from 10,000) in 20 days as compared to Mumbai which took 37 days.
9. Orissa, Bihar and West Bengal have started to show signs of growth and becoming future epicentres.
10. Active cases in Bengaluru has gone up considerably in the last 20 days from below 400 to touching close to 10000 (9442) and started moving up again.
11. The overall growth rate of India on a 7 day moving average scale is 3.5% while the recovery rate at the same scale is 4.0%.
Methodology:
Led by insights and efficacy, Times Fact India Outbreak Report a joint endeavour by Times Network and global data and digital consulting firm Protiviti, has achieved an accuracy rate of 96% for active cases for its previous projections. The report showcases several pertinent data points which includes India’s possible peak points, state & city wise projections and active cases over a period of time and report follows a sophisticated and vigorous mathematical modelling. Parsed by reputed data scientists and quantitative experts, Times Fact India Outbreak Report is based on three different models, The Percentage Model, which involves mapping trends from Italy and the United States onto India, the Time Series Model, which involves factors in data across time periods in China and South Korea in addition to two polynomial regression models adapted to Indian data, and the Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered (SEIR) model which is based on an estimation of a reproduction rate of the epidemic. Drawing critical information from central government data, state government bulletins, and daily updates provided by the Health Ministry, the report is a holistic COVID -19 projection for the nation.
